The Fernald-Hsu-Spiegel China Cyclical Exercise Tracker (CCAT) confirmed third-quarter progress 0.26 commonplace deviations beneath pattern.

determine 1: GDP year-over-year commonplace deviation progress is beneath pattern (blue), CCAT (tan), Li Keqiang Index (inexperienced), and imports (pink). Supply: CCAT/SF Fed, considered November 8, 2023.

The detrended GDP progress price is about 2.4%, so the worth beneath the pattern worth of 0.26 is 0.62%; for the reason that third quarter pattern progress price is predicted to be 5.07%, the implied third quarter progress price is 4.45%, which is barely decrease 4.9% of the official information from the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics. Curiously, the Li Keqiang Index (the primary principal element of the indicator) implies roughly the identical progress price. In each circumstances, the hole between the official and different plans for Season 2 is way wider.

BOFIT’s different calculation common for the third quarter is 3.43%, with a excessive/low vary of 5.11%/2.08%.